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NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

Sebastian Carl & NFL

2023-12-20

Source: vignettes/articles/tiebreaker.Rmd
tiebreaker.Rmd

NFL tiebreaking procedures for division ranks and conference seeds are documented on the NFL.com website and on the NFL Football Operations website. They are mostly identical, but not exactly1.

Draft pick assignment is also documented on the NFL.com website and on the NFL Football Operations website. However, the author is of the opinion that both texts are so cumbersome and misleadingly worded that he has written his own summary instead.

This website documents the currently in nflseedR implemented process in case the above linked websites change in the future.

Break a Tie Within a Division

This is used to calculate the variable div_rank

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

If two clubs remain tied after one or more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss.

Break a Tie for Conference Seeds

This is used to calculate the variable conf_rank

The seven postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows

  1. The division champion with the best record.
  2. The division champion with the second-best record.
  3. The division champion with the third-best record.
  4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
  5. The wild card club with the best record.
  6. The wild card club with the second-best record.
  7. The wild card club with the third-best record.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules. NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

  1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.
  2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory in all games.
  5. Strength of schedule in all games.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

If two clubs remain tied after one or more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.

When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third Wild Card (i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2). In situations in which three teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild Card berth.

  1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two[sic!] three Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  9. Best net points in conference games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss.

Other Tie-Breaking Procedures

  1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
  2. In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
  3. To determine home field priority among division winners, apply Wild Card tiebreakers.
  4. To determine home field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tiebreakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
  5. To determine the best combined ranking among conference team’s in points scored and points allowed, add a team’s position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is “3.” If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is “4.” Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of “1” in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be “3.”

Break a Tie for the Draft (“Selection Meeting”)

This is used to calculate the variable draft_rank

The order of selection is determined by the reverse order of finish in the previous season. Barring any trades between clubs, each round starts with the team that finished with the worst record and ends with the Super Bowl champions.

Picks are assigned by win percentage in ascending order as follows:

  1. Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 18th positions.
  2. The losers of the Wild Card games shall select in the 19th through 24th positions.
  3. The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select in the 25th through 28th positions.
  4. The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th.
  5. The winner of the Super Bowl game shall select last and the Super Bowl loser will select next-to-last.

In situations where teams finished the previous season with identical win percentage, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the earlier pick.

If the teams have the same strength of schedule, division or conference tiebreakers are applied first.

Divisional Draft Pick Tie

If all teams tied for a pick are from the same division, then the division rank is used. The lower division rank gets the earlier pick.

Conference Draft Pick Tie

If all teams tied for a pick are from the same conference, then the conference rank is used. The lower conference rank gets the earlier pick.

Inter-Conference Draft Pick Tie

If the divisional or conference tiebreakers are not applicable, or ties still exist between teams of different conferences, ties will be broken by the following procedure:

Ties involving THREE OR MORE clubs from different conferences will be broken by applying

  1. divisional tiebreakers to determine the lowest-ranked team in a division,
  2. conference tiebreakers to determine the lowest-ranked team within a conference.

After this process, there can only be 2 inter-conference teams participating in the following steps (draft pick assignment is reversed to division or conference ties. Worse teams get earlier picks):

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable. The loser gets the earlier pick.
  2. Worst won-lost-tied percentage in common games (minimum of four).
  3. Worst Strength of victory in all games.
  4. Worst combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  5. Worst net points in all games.
  6. Worst net touchdowns in all games.
  7. Coin toss.